Errors in the position of vortices and fronts and its impact on data assimilation in the geosciences

Daniel Hodyss, Naval Research Laboratory
February 6th, 2013 at 4PM–5PM in 939 Evans Hall [Map]

The uncertainty in the position of features of a fluid (e.g. vortices and fronts) is ubiquitous in geophysical fluid dynamics. This talk will begin by exploring the structure of distributions arising from the uncertainty in the location of a flow feature. It will be shown that the probability density functions associated with these distributions have surprisingly complex, non-Gaussian characteristics. Data assimilation, which is the act of combining information from observations with model forecasts to obtain a state estimate, will be shown to be highly sensitive to the shape of these distributions. It will be argued that the lowest-order effect that should be accounted for in these situations will be the skewness (third moment) of the probability density function. A simple modification to an Ensemble Kalman Filter will be described that adds the capability to use the skewness in the calculation of the state estimate. Along the way I will describe a few contemporary data assimilation algorithms commonly used in the geosciences (i.e. state vectors of 107 to 108 elements).